For thirty years, China’s economic growth was the closest thing the global economy had to a reliable engine. That engine is sputtering, and the effects are spreading in ways that do not respect trade allegiances.

The proximate causes are well documented: a property sector that has not recovered from the Evergrande collapse, consumer confidence that has not returned to pre-pandemic levels, youth unemployment running above 15%, and deflationary pressure that signals demand weakness rather than price stability. The structural causes run deeper — a demographic cliff, a model of export-led growth that trading partners are increasingly resisting, and a domestic consumption base that the government has tried and failed to cultivate as a replacement driver.