The US fertility rate continued its decline to historic lows in 2025, driven by two converging trends: teen pregnancy rates have plummeted, and more women are delaying motherhood into their 30s and 40s.

The teen birth rate sat at 11.7 births per 1,000 females aged 15-19 — a number that would have been unimaginable a generation ago when it was around 60. That’s a genuine public health success, attributable to better access to contraception and shifting norms.

The US fertility rate continued its decline to historic lows, driven by two converging forces: plunging teen pregnancies and a sharp increase in women delaying motherhood into their 30s and 40s. The data, released this week, confirms a structural shift rather than a cyclical dip.

Teen pregnancy rates have been falling for decades — that part is a success story, driven by better access to contraception and changing social norms. The delayed motherhood trend is more complicated. It reflects education, labor market dynamics, housing costs, and a general calculus that the conditions for child-rearing are arriving later in life, if at all.

India surpassed China as the world’s most populous country in 2023. Two years later, the implications are becoming more concrete.

The demographic story is more nuanced than a headline number. India has a young population — median age around 28, compared to China’s 39 and Japan’s 49. In a global economy increasingly concerned about aging workforces and shrinking labor pools, this is a structural asset. More young workers means more potential output, more consumption, more innovation — if the economic conditions to absorb them exist.