Colorado State University released its annual Atlantic hurricane forecast this week, projecting 13 named storms and 6 hurricanes for the 2026 season. The forecast arrives against an already elevated baseline: last month was the hottest March on record for the contiguous United States, by the widest margin ever recorded for any single month. A developing El Niño pattern could push temperatures further.

El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing wind shear — but when baseline sea surface temperatures are already this high, the suppression effect is partially offset. The models are working in territory with fewer historical analogs.

Colorado State University released its annual Atlantic hurricane forecast: 13 named storms, six of which are expected to become hurricanes.

The forecast comes as NOAA data shows last month was the hottest March on record for the Lower 48 states — the largest anomaly ever recorded for any month. A forecast El Niño could drive temperatures higher still.

El Niño historically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing wind shear. But the baseline sea surface temperatures are so elevated that even a shear-heavy season may produce more intense storms than historical averages would suggest.