Freight has spent 2026 being repriced by events that have nothing to do with demand. A war closed a waterway, tariff deadlines pulled cargo forward, and carriers discovered that surcharges outlive the disruptions that justified them. Below is a walk through what has actually moved, and where the numbers come from.

The Rate Story

The cleanest signal did not show up in crude. It showed up in box rates on lanes that never touch the Persian Gulf: Asia-US spot rates ran 276% above their February baseline after the strikes on Iran, with East Coast rates up 232% over the same window. What made that interesting was what happened next. Capacity came back on the two major East-West lanes and rates stayed elevated anyway, which is the point at which a supply shock quietly becomes a pricing regime.