Trump threatened this week to pull the United States out of NATO following a meeting with the alliance’s Secretary General. The threat came in the context of ongoing disputes over burden-sharing, European support for the Iran conflict, and what the administration views as insufficient deference from alliance partners.

This is not the first time Trump has raised the possibility of leaving NATO. It has become a recurring negotiating posture — maximalist pressure designed to extract concessions on defense spending or policy alignment. European capitals have largely stopped treating these statements as bluffs, which may be the most consequential shift of his second term.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk didn’t mince words. NATO fragmentation. Sanctions relief for Moscow. A European energy crisis. Aid to Ukraine frozen. The reconstruction loan blocked by Budapest. He called it what it is: a checklist that reads like something drawn up in the Kremlin.

The threat of NATO’s break-up, easing sanctions on Russia, a massive energy crisis in Europe, halting aid for Ukraine and blocking the loan for Kyiv by Orbán - it all looks like Putin’s dream plan.

Something structurally significant is happening in European defense spending, and it is moving faster than most foreign policy watchers expected.

Germany, which for decades treated its post-war pacifism as a near-constitutional value, has committed to defense spending above 2% of GDP — a threshold it avoided for thirty years. Poland is on track to reach 5%. The UK announced its largest defense budget expansion since the Cold War. These are not incremental adjustments. They represent a fundamental reassessment of the security environment.