The stated goals going into the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran were substantial: end the nuclear program, destroy Iran’s military capabilities, and produce regime change. After six weeks of strikes and a ceasefire announced April 8, none of those goals have been achieved.

Iran’s nuclear infrastructure was damaged but not eliminated. Its military took significant losses but retains functional capacity. The government has not fallen — Khamenei’s health condition has created instability, but instability is not regime change. The regime is still there.