Last month was the hottest March ever recorded for the contiguous United States — and not by a small margin. Federal data shows it exceeded previous records by the largest gap ever logged for any month, which is the kind of statistical anomaly that stops being reassuring to explain away. A forecast El Niño is expected to push temperatures higher still in the months ahead.

March being warm doesn’t make every summer extreme, and climate operates at scales that resist single-month narratives. But the margin matters. When records aren’t just broken but shattered, it suggests the baseline is shifting faster than the models anticipated, or that the models were right and we’re simply further along the curve than most public discourse has caught up to. Either interpretation leads to the same place.

Colorado State University released its annual Atlantic hurricane forecast this week, projecting 13 named storms and 6 hurricanes for the 2026 season. The forecast arrives against an already elevated baseline: last month was the hottest March on record for the contiguous United States, by the widest margin ever recorded for any single month. A developing El Niño pattern could push temperatures further.

El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing wind shear — but when baseline sea surface temperatures are already this high, the suppression effect is partially offset. The models are working in territory with fewer historical analogs.