The US and Iran Hit Pause — For Now
A last-minute ceasefire between the United States and Iran landed just before Trump’s ultimatum deadline expired. The deal pauses a conflict that had been grinding through its sixth week, with U.S.-Israeli strikes targeting Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure and Iran striking back at regional targets.
The terms: Iran agreed to discuss opening the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. agreed to suspend offensive operations for two weeks. Trump called it a win. Iran’s government called it a pause. Israel said it wasn’t bound by any of it and kept striking Hezbollah positions in Lebanon anyway.
Markets exhaled. Oil prices dropped. Nobody thinks it’s over.
The bigger wrinkle: Iran’s supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei is reportedly in severe condition and unable to govern. A power vacuum at the top of the Iranian state during an active ceasefire negotiation is not exactly a stability enhancer.
Two weeks is a very short runway.