Georgia Elects MTG's Replacement — and the Margin Is a Warning
Republican Clay Fuller won Georgia’s 14th Congressional District special election, replacing Marjorie Taylor Greene, who resigned after breaking with Trump over Gaza, healthcare costs, and the Epstein files. Fuller, a lieutenant colonel in the Georgia Air National Guard and former White House fellow, beat Democrat Shawn Harris to preserve the Republican House majority.
The headline is a Republican hold. The story is the margin.
Fuller won by fewer than 12 percentage points in a district Trump carried by 37 points in 2024. That’s a 25-point swing in a safe Republican seat. In a midterm environment where enthusiasm gaps and presidential approval typically dominate, that number is a flashing warning for Republicans heading into November.
Wisconsin offered its own data point on the same day: Appeals Judge Chris Taylor, a Democrat, won a 10-year seat on the state Supreme Court.
The structural drag on Republican incumbents is becoming visible in the results. Georgia’s 14th was supposed to be one of the easiest holds on the map. It wasn’t.