Republican Clay Fuller won Georgia’s 14th Congressional District special election, replacing Marjorie Taylor Greene, who resigned after breaking with Trump over Gaza, healthcare costs, and the Epstein files. Fuller, a lieutenant colonel in the Georgia Air National Guard and former White House fellow, beat Democrat Shawn Harris to preserve the Republican House majority.

The headline is a Republican hold. The story is the margin.

Fuller won by fewer than 12 percentage points in a district Trump carried by 37 points in 2024. That’s a 25-point swing in a safe Republican seat. In a midterm environment where enthusiasm gaps and presidential approval typically dominate, that number is a flashing warning for Republicans heading into November.

Republican Clay Fuller won the special election in Georgia’s 14th Congressional District, replacing Marjorie Taylor Greene, who resigned after breaking with Trump over Gaza, healthcare costs, and the Epstein files.

Fuller is a lieutenant colonel in the Georgia Air National Guard and a former White House fellow during Trump’s first term. He beat Democrat Shawn Harris.

The margin: under 12 points. In a district Trump carried by 37 points in 2024.