Markets Had a Great Ceasefire. Then Reality Checked In.
When Trump announced the US-Iran ceasefire Tuesday, Wall Street went full risk-on.
The Dow jumped 1,325 points — up 2.8% — to close at 47,909. The S&P 500 added 2.5%. Nasdaq popped 2.8%. The Russell 2000 gained 3%. Oil dropped below $95 a barrel. Somewhere, a trader bought a boat.
By Thursday, the mood had sobered. Oil climbed back toward $96-98. Asian markets were still green — Nikkei up 1.5%, Hang Seng up 1.1%, Kospi up 1.8% — but the euphoria had faded into cautious positioning ahead of the weekend talks in Pakistan.
The ceasefire trade was real. The ceasefire itself remains a work in progress.
On the economic data front, the March Consumer Price Index is due soon and forecasts suggest prices could be climbing at the fastest rate in nearly two years. Between war-risk oil and tariff-driven input costs, the inflation picture isn’t cooperative. Markets have a lot to digest before anyone calls this a stable environment.