The Iran Ceasefire Is Already Coming Apart
Two weeks in and the Iran ceasefire is fraying at every seam. Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf listed three violations he says have already occurred: continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon, a drone entering Iranian airspace, and what Tehran frames as a denial of its right to enrich uranium. None of these are minor complaints — each one is a potential pretext for Tehran to walk away.
The White House’s position isn’t helping. JD Vance, speaking from Hungary, acknowledged the ceasefire is “messy” but held firm that Iran cannot enrich uranium and that Lebanon was never included in the agreement. Iran says the opposite. That is not a gap — that is a chasm.
Oil markets briefly rallied on the initial deal announcement and have since pulled back as traders recalibrate. Brent held around $96 a barrel, which tells you something: the market isn’t pricing in peace, just a pause.
US-Iran talks are scheduled for Pakistan this weekend. The odds they produce anything binding look worse by the hour.